Friday 25 February 2011

Olympic Medalist Project: Part III

In Part I and Part II, we looked at how the medalists from the last three Olympic Games were ranked in the year prior to swimming's biggest event.

However, are world rankings really the best indicator to predict success? What about swimmer's who have the ability to 'raise their game' in the big competitions and vice versa. When studying the rankings from the year before the Olympics, I noticed a lot of the best times posted did not come from the World Championships, but instead from either Nationals/Trials or smaller meets in the winter. Therefore I decided to look at the medal winners from the last three Olympics and their performance in the World Championships in the previous year (note - the World Championships before the 2000 Olympics were held in 1998).

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2008/2007 Men

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GoldSilverBronze

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2008 Result50m FreeCieloLeveauxBernard

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2007 Result50m Free6thDNC9th

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2008 Result100m FreeBernardSullivanLezak/Cielo

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2007 Result100m Free9th3rd5th/4th

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2008 Result200m FreePhelpsParkVanderkaay

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2007 Result200m Free1st3rdDNC

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2008 Result400m FreeParkZhangJensen

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2007 Result400m Free1st11thDNC

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2008 Result1500m FreeMellouliHackettCochrane

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2007 Result1500m FreeDNC7th15th

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2008 Result100m BackPeirsolGreversVyatchanin/Stoeckel

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2007 Result100m Back1stDNC4th/16th

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2008 Result200m BackLochtePeirsolVyatchanin

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2007 Result200m Back1st2nd4th

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2008 Result100m BreastKitajimaDale OenDuboscq

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2007 Result100m Breast2nd8th16th

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2008 Result200m BreastKitajimaRickardDuboscq

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2007 Result200m Breast1st2ndDNC

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2008 Result100m FlyPhelpsCavicLauterstein

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2007 Result100m Fly1st6th15th

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2008 Result200m FlyPhelpsCsehMatsuda

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2007 Result200m Fly1stDNC9th

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2008 Result200m IMPhelpsCsehLochte

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2007 Result200m IM1st3rd2nd

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2008 Result400m IMPhelpsCsehLochte

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2007 Result400m IM1st4th2nd

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2008 Result4 x 100 FreeUSAFranceAustralia

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2007 Result4 x 100 Free1st3rd5th

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2008 Result4 x 200 FreeUSARussiaAustralia

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2007 Result4 x 200 Free1st6th2nd

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2008 Result4 x 100 MedleyUSAAustraliaJapan

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2007 Result4 x 100 MedleyDQ1st2nd

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Winners in 2007 and 2008 - 11/16 = 68.75%Medalists in 2007 and 2008 - 23/50 = 46%Non-Medal Winning Finalists 2007 to Medalists 2008 - 11/50 = 22%Non-finalists 2007 to Medalists 2008 - 9/50 = 18%Did not compete in 2007 to Medalist in 2008 - 7/50 = 14%

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2008/2007 Women

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GoldSilverBronze

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2008 Result50m FreeSteffenTorresCampbell

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2007 Result50m Free4thDNCDNC

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2008 Result100m FreeSteffenTrickettCoughlin

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2007 Result100m Free3rd1st4th

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2008 Result200m FreePellegriniIsakovicJiayang

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2007 Result200m Free3rdDNC20th

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2008 Result400m FreeAdlingtonHoffJackson

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2007 Result400m FreeDNC4th7th

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2008 Result800m FreeAdlingtonFilippiFriis

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2007 Result800m Free10thDNC11th

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2008 Result100m BackCoughlinCoventryHoelzer

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2007 Result100m Back1st14thDNC

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2008 Result200m BackCoventryHoelzerNakamura

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2007 Result200m Back2nd1st3rd

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2008 Result100m BreastJonesSoniJukic

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2007 Result100m Breast1stDNC17th

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2008 Result200m BreastSoniJonesNordenstam

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2007 Result200m BreastDNC1stDNC

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2008 Result100m FlyTrickettMagnusonSchipper

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2007 Result100m Fly1stDNC3rd

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2008 Result200m FlyZigeLiuyangSchipper

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2007 Result200m FlyDNC4th1st

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2008 Result200m IMRiceCoventryCoughlin

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2007 Result200m IM3rd2ndDNC

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2008 Result400m IMRiceCoventryHoff

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2007 Result400m IM3rdDNC1st

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2008 Result4 x 100 FreeNEDUSAAUS

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2007 Result4 x 100 Free3rd2nd1st

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2008 Result4 x 200 FreeAUSCHNUSA

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2007 Result4 x 200 Free4th9th1st

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2008 Result4 x 100 MedleyAUSUSACHN

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2007 Result4 x 100 Medley1st2nd3rd

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Winners in 2007 and 2008 - 4/16 = 25%Medalists in 2007 and 2008 - 24/48 = 50%Non-Medal Winning Finalists 2007 to Medalists 2008 - 5/48 = 10.42%Non-finalists 2007 to Medalists 2008 - 6/48 = 12.5%Did not compete in 2007 to Medalist in 2008 - 13/48 = 27.08%

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2004/2003 Men

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GoldSilverBronze

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2004 Result50m FreeHall JrDraganjaSchoeman

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2003 Result50m FreeDNC50th17th

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2004 Result100m FreeHoogenbandSchoemanThorpe

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2003 Result100m Free2nd28th3rd

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2004 Result200m FreeThorpeHoogenbandPhelps

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2003 Result200m Free1st2ndDNC

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2004 Result400m FreeThorpeHackettKeller

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2003 Result400m Free1st2nd5th

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2004 Result1500m FreeHackettJensenDavies

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2003 Result1500m Free1st5th4th

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2004 Result100m BackPeirsolRoganMorita

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2003 Result100m Back1st5th6th

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2004 Result200m BackPeirsolRoganFlorea

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2003 Result200m Back1st11th7th

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2004 Result100m BreastKitajimaHansenDuboscq

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2003 Result100m Breast1st2nd8th

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2004 Result200m BreastKitajimaGyurtaHansen

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2003 Result200m Breast1st14th3rd

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2004 Result100m FlyPhelpsCrockerSerdinov

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2003 Result100m Fly2nd1st3rd

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2004 Result200m FlyPhelpsYamamotoParry

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2003 Result200m Fly1st2nd4th

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2004 Result200m IMPhelpsLochteBovell

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2003 Result200m IM1stDNC5th

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2004 Result400m IMPhelpsVendtCseh

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2003 Result400m IM1stDNC2nd

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2004 Result4 x 100 FreeRSANEDUSA

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2003 Result4 x 100 Free8th10th2nd

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2004 Result4 x 200 FreeUSAAUSITA

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2003 Result4 x 200 Free2nd1st4th

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2004 Result4 x 100 MedleyUSAGERJAP

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2003 Result4 x 100 Medley1st11th2nd

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Winners in 2003 and 2004 - 11/16 = 68.75%Medalists in 2003 and 2004 - 26/48 = 54.2%Non-Medal Winning Finalists 2003 to Medalists 2004 - 11/48 = 22.9%Non-finalists 2003 to Medalists 2004 - 7/48 = 14.6%Did not compete in 2003 to Medalist in 2004 - 4/48 = 8.3%

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2004/2003 Women

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GoldSilverBronze

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2004 Result50m Freede BruijnMetellaLenton

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2003 Result50m Free1stDNC3rd

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2004 Result100m FreeHenryde BruijnCoughlin

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2003 Result100m Free2ndDNC31st

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2004 Result200m FreePotecPellegriniFigues

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2003 Result200m FreeDNCDNC5th

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2004 Result400m FreeManaudouJedrzejczakSandeno

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2003 Result400m Free13thDNCDNC

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2004 Result800m FreeShibataManaudouMunz

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2003 Result800m Free13th19th2nd

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2004 Result100m BackCoughlinCoventryManaudou

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2003 Result100m Back22nd19th11th

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2004 Result200m BackCoventryKomarovaBuschschulte/Nakamura

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2003 Result200m Back14th3rdDNC/DNC

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2004 Result100m BreastXuejuanHansonJones

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2003 Result100m Breast1st6th3rd

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2004 Result200m BreastBeardJonesPoleska

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2003 Result200m Breast1st2nd4th

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2004 Result100m FlyThomasJedrzejczakde Bruijn

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2003 Result100m FlyDNC2ndDNC

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2004 Result200m FlyJedrzejczakThomasNakanishi

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2003 Result200m Fly1stDNC3rd

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2004 Result200m IMKlochkovaBeardCoventry

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2003 Result200m IM1stDNC9th

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2004 Result400m IMKlochkovaSandenoBardach

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2003 Result400m IM1stDNC7th

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2004 Result4 x 100 FreeAUSUSANED

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2003 Result4 x 100 Free3rd1st4th

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2004 Result4 x 200 FreeUSACHNGER

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2003 Result4 x 200 Free1st3rd9th

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2004 Result4 x 100 MedleyAUSUSAGER

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2003 Result4 x 100 Medley3rd2nd4th

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Winners in 2003 and 2004 - 7/16 = 43.75%Medalists in 2003 and 2004 - 20/49 = 40.8%Non-Medal Winning Finalists 2003 to Medalists 2004 - 6/49 = 12.2%Non-finalists 2003 to Medalists 2004 - 10/49 = 20.4%Did not compete in 2003 to Medalist in 2004 - 13/49 = 26.5%

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2000/1998 Men

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GoldSilverBronze

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2000 Result50m FreeErvin/Hall JrHoogenband

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1998 Result50m FreeDNC/DNC7th

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2000 Result100m FreeV.d.HoogenbandPopovHall Jr

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1998 Result100m Free4th1stDNC

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2000 Result200m FreeV.d.HoogenbandThorpeRosolino

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1998 Result200m Free3rdDNC2nd

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2000 Result400m FreeThorpeRosolinoKeller

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1998 Result400m Free1st5thDNC

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2000 Result1500m FreeHackettPerkinsThompson

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1998 Result1500m Free1stDNCDNC

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2000 Result100m BackKrayzelburgWelshTheloke

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1998 Result100m Back1st6th3rd

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2000 Result200m BackKrayzelburgPeirsolWelsh

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1998 Result200m Back1stDNCDNC

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2000 Result100m BreastFiorvantiMosesSludnov

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1998 Result100m Breast5thDNCDNC

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2000 Result200m BreastFiorvantiParkinRummolo

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1998 Result200m Breast16thDNCDNC

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2000 Result100m FlyFrolanderKlimHuegill

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1998 Result100m Fly2nd1st3rd

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2000 Result200m FlyMalchowSylantyevNorris

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1998 Result200m Fly3rd1stDNC

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2000 Result200m IMRosolinoDolanWilkens

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1998 Result200m IMDNC8thDNC

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2000 Result400m IMDolanVendtMyden

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1998 Result400m IM1stDNC3rd

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2000 Result4 x 100 FreeAUSUSABRA

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1998 Result4 x 100 Free2nd1st6th

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2000 Result4 x 200 FreeAUSUSANED

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1998 Result4 x 200 Free1st5th2nd

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2000 Result4 x 100 MedleyUSAAUSGER

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1998 Result4 x 100 Medley2nd1st4th

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Winners in 1998 and 2000 - 6/17 = 35.29%Medalists in 1998 and 2000 - 21/48 = 43.75%Non-Medal Winning Finalists 1998 to Medalists 2000 - 9/48 = 18.75%Non-finalists 1998 to Medalists 2000 - 1/48 = 2.08%Did not compete in 1998 to Medalist in 2000 - 17/48 = 35.41%

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2000/1998 Women

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GoldSilverBronze

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2000 Result50m Freede BruijnAlshammarTorres

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1998 Result50m FreeDNC6thDNC

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2000 Result100m Freede BruijnAlshammarTorres/Thompson

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1998 Result100m Free8thDNCDNC/1st

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2000 Result200m FreeO'NeillMoravcovaPoll

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1998 Result200m Free6th2nd1st

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2000 Result400m FreeBennettMunzPoll

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1998 Result400m Free2nd6th8th

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2000 Result800m FreeBennettKlochkovaSandeno

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1998 Result800m Free1stDNCDNC

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2000 Result100m BackMocanuNakamuraZhivanevskaya

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1998 Result100m BackDNC2ndDNC

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2000 Result200m BackMocanuMaracineanuNakao

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1998 Result200m BackDNC2nd6th

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2000 Result100m BreastQuannJonesHeyns

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1998 Result100m BreastDNCDNC5th

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2000 Result200m BreastKovacsKowalBeard

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1998 Result200m Breast1st2ndDNC

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2000 Result100m Flyde BruijnMoravcovaTorres

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1998 Result100m Fly7th6thDNC

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2000 Result200m FlyHymanO'NeillThomas

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1998 Result200m Fly3rd1st2nd

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2000 Result200m IMKlochkovaCaslaruTeuscher

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1998 Result200m IM4th7thDNC

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2000 Result400m IMKlochkovaTajimaCaslaru

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1998 Result400m IM2nd3rd9th

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2000 Result4 x 100 FreeUSANEDSWE

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1998 Result4 x 100 Free1st5th4th

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2000 Result4 x 200 FreeUSAAUSGER

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1998 Result4 x 200 Free2nd3rd1st

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2000 Result4 x 100 MedleyUSAAUSJAP

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1998 Result4 x 100 Medley1st2nd3rd

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Winners in 1998 and 2000 - 4/16 = 25%Medalists in 1998 and 2000 - 21/49 = 42.86%Non-Medal Winning Finalists 1998 to Medalists 2000 - 14/49 = 28.57%Non-finalists 1998 to Medalists 2000 - 1/49 = 2.04%Did not compete in 1998 to Medalist in 2000 - 13/49 = 26.53%

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